Hillary Clinton is officially running for president. She has now hopped on the “Scooby” van, which is part of a road trip from New York To Iowa. CNN decided to mark this occasion by reporting that the former first lady has been spotted in Pennsylvania to fill up her “champion” mobile. Yet, there does seem to be some changes from this initial rollout. For starters, this trip only consists of a three-car caravan, not a motorcade of black SUVs. She’s trying to ditch the limousine liberal bit, but even CNN anchors laughed at the notion that she would be pumping her own gas.
Guy wrote earlier today how Clinton is a vulnerable frontrunner, but one that should be underestimated by the Republicans. And despite Democrats and Independents wanting a strong primary challenge to Clinton, it may work to the party's detriment. At the same time, the fact that it appears she will be running towards Obama's record on the economy is a huge gamble, one that Team Hillary seems willing to take if they can reconstitute the old Obama coalition that provided him with a “blue wall” of support for 2008 and 2012. Still, from the Oracle Nate Silver, Clinton still has a 50-50 shot of becoming president. While they’re not bad odds, it’s a figure that should be unsettling for the operatives of this well-oiled political machine.
While foreign policy will probably play a bigger role in this election, the main issues will still be centered on the economy. And the economic outlook could be better for 2016, in which a competitive election will become only more intense. Silver noted that most economic projections are unforeseeable more than six months in advance, which is probably why George Will quoted liberal economist John Kenneth Galbraith on economic projections in 2011; Galbraith said that the purpose of economic projections was to make astrology look respectable.
While foreign policy was able to move the needle to the right in 2014, especially in the North Carolina Senate race, foreign policy isn't a slam-dunk on an electoral success. George H.W. Bush had record high approval ratings after he won the first Gulf War in 1991; he lost to Bill Clinton due to a stagnating economy. I consider the 2004 win by George W. Bush something of an outlier. We had just launched a large and concerted ground operation in Iraq, we were in the first stages in an unconventional war–the War on Terror–and preventing another 9/11 was still very much in everybody’s minds. Now, whether we will see a return of the “security moms” that flocked to the GOP that year remains to be seen, but we shouldn't bank on beating Hillary solely on the fact that her foreign policy record has been lit aflame in recent weeks.
But let’s focus on what lies ahead of Hillary in her road trip. As she heads into Iowa, there are reports that Clinton's people have not been good at keeping in contact with the local party chairpersons and key activists, who view grassroots interaction as incredibly important to winning over voters. Right now, she looks like she may be heading into another lukewarm reception (via the Guardian): Continue Reading...HERE
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