Showing posts with label By: Daniel Horowitz (Diary). Show all posts
Showing posts with label By: Daniel Horowitz (Diary). Show all posts

Obama’s Cowardly Mendacity Over Sequestration

 




In August 2011, Obama hatched a deal to grant himself a free $2.1 trillion increase in debt, which would take him past the 2012 elections, thereby sparing him the embarrassment of another debt limit request during the campaign season.  He knew that such a request was so bold it needed to be ensconced in a deal that would give voters the impression he was committed to cutting spending.  To that end, the Budget Control Act called for the creation of a super committee to identify $1.2 trillion in baseline cuts and tax increases.  Given that the committee would be evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, Obama knew that this would trigger the sequestration.  And that is exactly what he wanted.
Nobody could accuse Republicans of designing the sequester.  Only a leftist like Obama would ensure that the one mechanism to actually cut spending would disproportionately cut defense.  For example, this year’s sequester will cut $42.7 billion from defense, $28.7 billion from non-defense discretionary spending, and $14 billion from mandatory spending, most notably, to healthcare providers.  Obama figured that Republicans would be so scared of the defense sequester that they would come to him begging for a reprieve.  That way Obama would be saved from cutting one penny of spending from any account, and could possibly leverage more tax increases in exchange for letting them off easy with defense spending cuts.
A free $2.1 debt limit increase in exchange for nothing but defense cuts and possible leverage to raise taxes…..sounds like a nice plan, doesn’t it?
In 2011, Republicans went along with this insane plan.  As a result, we burned through the $2.1 trillion in new debt in just 17 months.  We actually increased spending during that time period.  Now the time to pay the infinitesimal price of spending cuts has come due.  Conservatives decided to draw a line in the sand and not fall into Obama’s trap.  While we don’t like the fact that 50% of the cuts will come from the most important part of the budget, which only represents 20% of total outlays, we will not pass up an opportunity to cut non-defense discretionary spending; nor will we be suckered into more tax hikes.
Before it became clear to Obama that conservatives were willing to stand on principle even in the face of defense cuts, he actually threatened to veto any repeal of the sequester.  Now that we are calling his bluff, he is saying the world will come to an end if we don’t repeal it.  The reality is that Obama couldn’t care less about defense.  All he cares about is the non-defense spending.  The federal budget sans base defense spending is roughly $3 trillion.  A $42.7 billion cut is approximately 1.4% of the rest of the federal budget.  If you can’t handle a 1.4% cut off your record high baseline after concocting this plan in exchange for your debt limit increase, you are nothing but a coward, Mr. President.
This needs to be the message emanating from Republicans.  Instead of buying into Obama’s message of doom, Republicans need to pocket this victory.  They should let the American people know that they are willing to let go of their scared cow; now it’s time for Obama to man up and accept his own spending cuts, which are smaller than the defense cuts.
The real concern for conservatives is that too many Republicans are refusing to take yes for an answer, and accept the sequester.  Instead, they are trying to fight it, even though most of them voted for it, while squandering their political capital to fight Obamacare in the upcoming continuing resolution.  Some “anonymous” aids have already suggested they will never fight the CR.
With such poor messaging over the sequester, as so astutely noted by Byron York, it’s no wonder conservatives like Jim Bridenstine are smelling another capitulation.
Boehner and McConnell need to put out one more statement challenging Obama to keep his word on his own deal, just like they are (hopefully) willing to uphold their end of the deal on defense spending.  Then, they must move on and immediately begin assailing Obamacare every day for the next month.
Obama is on the run.  Republicans are the only ones who can save him.


Daniel Horowitz (Diary)

A Retreat Emanating from the GOP Retreat?

 


Republicans came into their annual retreat at Williamsburg, Virginia looking for a starting point in the upcoming debt and budget battles. It appears that they have emerged from the retreat with a full blown plan.
They will pass a bill this week that will suspend the debt ceiling law until May 18. The debt limit increase will be tied to a requirement that the Senate passes a budget – with the threat of cutting off pay for senators in the event they fail to come through with one by April 15. Note that there is no requirement that the Senate pass a budget that balances in 10 years, just that they pass any budget.
The underlying rationale behind this strategy is to defer the debt ceiling fight until after the FY 2013 CR is dealt with and the FY 2014 budgets are formulated. The idea is that the House would unite behind a pro-active budget/debt plan in March from which they would harness as their demand for any long-term debt ceiling increase in mid-April.
What sort of budget plan would Republicans formulate in March? According to a joint letter by five current and former chairmen of the Republican Study Committee, who are all supporting this plan, “the House will work to put the country on the path to a balanced budget in 10 years. House leadership also agreed to stand by the $974 billion discretionary number that is part of the sequestration process.”
If Republicans would truly use this short-term extension as an opportunity to formulate a balanced budget from which to use as any future demand for raising the debt ceiling, it’s a great deal. But please forgive me for feeling a bit like Moses during his interaction with Pharaoh during the plagues. After incurring the wrath of God for obdurately reneging on his promise to let the Jews out of Egypt, Pharaoh finally confessed his sins during the seventh plague and promised to let them go. Moses agreed to suspend the hail, but he was not fooled after 7 times. “But as for thee and thy servants, I know that ye will not yet fear the LORD God [Exodus 9, 30].”
By my count, there have been at least seven budget/debt battles over the past two years in which Republicans have either deferred, punted, or caved. While they offer excuses for shirking from the battle at hand, they always emphatically promise to fight the next one. Look, maybe Boehner told the conservatives in the House something that gave them the impression he had a complete epiphany. Maybe they really will formulate a budget that will balance in 10 years. But even if they do, does anyone really believe they will stand behind it as a demand for a long-term debt limit increase as the clock winds down to midnight May 18?
Conservatives need to ask the following question: why is it that leadership shirks from a fight every time they get close to the supposed deadline? They are obviously too scared to fight. So why will things change on May 18? Formulating a balanced budget is one thing; standing behind it – or even one or two consequential parts of it – when you have the leverage to do so is another thing.
We can talk from now until tomorrow about unilaterally passing a good budget in the House, but if we are not going to use one of the points of leverage (debt ceiling/CR) to enforce it, the promise is worthless. Even if conservatives sign onto this deal, it’s about time they force leadership to grow out of their “fear of the dark” with brinkmanship. They must pass the Full Faith and Credit Act, which will force the Treasury to prioritize debt payments in the event that an agreement is not reached, as part of the bill this week.
Many of the key figures in the pseudo-conservative intelligentsia are trying to convince conservatives in the House that there is no point in fighting for the next 4 years – as if we could even wait that long. They contend that it’s impossible to “govern from the House.” These supercilious wizards of smart would be wise to relearn the lessons of the Gingrich-era House. Despite their stubborn believe that we were eviscerated during the periods of brinkmanship in ’95-‘96, House conservatives successfully used their unswerving stance to force through welfare reform, a balanced budget, and tax cuts. Yes, they did control the Senate, but the rudderless leadership there had nothing to do with that success. It all came from the House. Republicans actually gained seats in the Senate in ’96. And no, Bob Dole did not lose the election because of the government shutdown.
Hence, Republicans actually achieved more when they were in control of the House than when they had the presidency.
Even the intransigent rubes like us intuitively understand that we will never get a full balance budget out of this. We’re not going to get free-market Medicare reform, welfare reform, Medicaid block grants, and private Social Security accounts in one deal. All we ask is that we begin negotiating from a balanced budget, and show the Democrats that we mean business – that we are willing to engage in brinkmanship to force some transformational change. We must get one or two significant reforms or reductions in the size of government as part of the final deal. Yet, we will only win those reforms if we are willing to engage in brinkmanship at some point.
Maybe this plan is the beginning of such an effort, but conservatives ought to receive a blood-oath from Boehner before going along with it.

Cross-posted from The Madison Project

Daniel Horowitz (Diary)