Commentary Magazine ^ | April 28, 2014 | Jonathan S. Tobin
In today’s Washington Post, the always-insightful Robert Costa reports on Sarah Palin’s latest foray into
electoral politics. In Iowa to observe a Palin campaign appearance on behalf of
Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst, Costa was surprised to note that Palin,
who is still widely considered to be a rock star of the political right, spoke
to a half-empty ballroom with only a few dozen hanging around afterward hoping
to shake the hand of the former Alaska governor. That contrast between this
event and the pandemonium that greeted Palin wherever she went in 2010 and 2011
led Costa and NBC’s Kasie Hunt to ponder just how much
her stock had fallen since her heyday as the No. 1 attraction for the Tea Party
crowd.
Some of this analysis is spot on. There’s no question that Palin has been
superseded in the eyes of many on the right by the class of conservative
notables like Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, and Rand Paul that was produced by the 2010
and 2012 election cycles. Even though Palin can claim some credit for the
victories of figures such as Cruz, when pollsters quiz Republicans about
potential presidential candidates for 2016, Palin is usually not even mentioned.
Though her supporters will point to the rain in Iowa as the reason for the low
turnout, the fact is she is no longer as much of a draw as she once was. But in
noting, as Costa did, the fact that she “soldiers on as a diminished figure in
the Republican Party,” we should, however, not assume that this means she is
bereft of influence or supporters. In accounting for this change in status, we
must understand that what has happened is not so much a case of a former
first-tier political personality declining to secondary status but that she has
morphed into something entirely different than a conventional office-seeking
politician. She is now a celebrity brand that, while it will never be as
significant as any of the actual contenders for leadership of the Republican
Party and the nation, will nonetheless remain in place for the foreseeable
future as both a scourge and a source of inspiration for the right wing of the
GOP.
As Palin’s handlers and apologists are at pains to point out, she is right
now far more interested in the production of her latest cable television effort
than in beating the bushes on behalf of Republican candidates. By withdrawing
first from her office as governor and then from what many once thought was an
inevitable presidential run, Palin’s stature as a political star has, as a
matter of course, declined. If the buzz and the accompanying throngs that
greeted her every appearance in early 2011 made her appear to be a major force
in American politics, the smaller crowds and attention now may convince some to
write her off completely. But though I consider her influence on both the party
and our public discourse to be not always productive or particularly insightful,
her current position in our political life should not be judged solely by the
standards of presidential hopefuls.
By downsizing her political ambitions and her reach, Palin has in a very real
sense enhanced her ability to swoop into selected primary battles and have an
outsized impact on races. Her intervention on behalf of the tough-talking Ernst,
which appears to have been solely the product of that Senate candidate’s ad
touting her experience castrating pigs, may turn out to be as decisive as her
support for Cruz and Nebraska’s Deb Fischer in 2012, despite the talk about
turnout for her appearance.
That doesn’t make her a Senate or congressional kingmaker in the guise of a
Karl Rove, whose fundraising operations dwarf Palin’s now sporadic entries into
primary battles. But she has managed to create a political space for herself in
which expectations about her own ambitions are no longer the point. Her fan base
remains numerous and utterly fanatic as anyone who dares to point out her
manifest shortcomings as a political thinker and candidate knows all too well.
If it is, as she knows all too well, nowhere near large enough to justify a try
for national office that would result in a humiliating failure, it is sufficient
to maintain her as a political player to be reckoned with on the right. If she
has been eclipsed by the deep class of 2016 GOP contenders, it must also be
understood that she is likely to remain a desirable backer for conservative
primary candidates for the foreseeable future long after the current crop of
Republican stars has been largely forgotten.
Palin is, at times, an infuriating and bitter reminder of the worst partisan
excesses of the last few election cycles on the part of both parties. As such,
she has no chance of ever gratifying the desire of her fan base to see her
elected president and that is a good thing. But those who would like to see her
go away completely are doomed to disappointment. By cleverly accepting a certain
degree of detachment as well as diminishment, Sarah Palin has ensured that she
will be around for a long time to come.
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