Was the federal debt worse after WWII than it is now?
Frequently, members of the political class will say things like "Deficits don't matter" (Dick Cheney). The logic used to justify opinions like this usually involves invoking the federal debt-to-GDP ratio after World War II of 120% versus about 100% today. Obviously, the debt is larger now in nominal terms than it was then, but a lot of inflation and population growth have occurred since then. While federal debt outstanding is relatively straightforward to come up with, GDP is a more awkward concept. For starters, not all GDP dollars are created equal. If I sue you and you sue me back for X amount of money within the same year, 2X is added to GDP even though neither of us is better off than before. For a more elaborate explanation as to why GDP is a relatively useless metric, I turn to Frank Shostak here: http://mises.org/daily/770
Another way to compare to try and compare debts between two periods to take the two debts and adjust them for population growth and inflation, which is done in the graph above. Population, like the federal debt, is relatively straightforward, and inflation numbers, while debatable, are generally right, particularly for the early inflation numbers. So while it's true that the average American's income has increased in real terms since WWII, their share of the federal debt has exploded. However, this is only part of the picture.
Contingent Liabilities
The commonly known federal debt figure (approximately $16 trillion) is debt outstanding, it does not include contingent liabilities. Investopedia defines "contingent liability" thusly: The possibility of an obligation to pay certain sums dependent on future events http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contingentliability.asp#ixzz29ab2q8HQ
Companies have these with regards to pensions, and insurance companies have these in regards to policies ("if our customer is in a car accident, we need to pay X amount of dollars"). For the federal government, future payments for social security and Medicare. When contingent liabilities are taken into account, the federal government does not have a debt of $16 trillion and an annual deficit of $1.2 trillion. It has a debt of $222 (two hundred and twenty two) trillion and an annual deficit of $11 (eleven) trillion, according to Lawrence Kotlikoff (see here: http://mises.org/daily/6192/Means-Testing-Your-Social-Security-Payments).
According to wikipedia, the resident population of the US is about 315 million people. That amounts to roughly $705,000 dollars of debt for every man, woman, and child in the US, growing around $3,800 annually. Considering the median post-tax income is about $35,000 and a median net worth of $41,600 (median household net worth divided by median household size [$109,500/2.63 persons per household]), it also means a default is realistically unavoidable. Our hypothetical "averaged" American would have to set aside almost 11% of their annual post-tax income just to keep up with the increases in debt, and then spend 20 years' wages paying down the principle.
Final Comparisons
Finding data on the unfunded liabilities in 1945 seems almost impossible. However, we have reasons to believe they weren't nearly the issue then that they are today. Most obviously, Medicare did not exist until 1965. Also, the population was much younger then, as bourgeois society and bourgeois morality (getting married, having children, being thrifty, etc.) was the norm, not "old-fashioned", as such the contingent liabilities that did exist were much more spread out (while it is true the dependency ratio is about the same now as in 1950, the difference is then it was young children whereas today it is retirees). Likewise, spending was cut enormously after WWII ended, whereas nothing will realistically be cut nowadays.
With all this in mind, I can say with absolute confidence: the federal debt is much worse now than it was in 1945. As far as I know, this dramatic increase in debt has not been concurrent with any comparable rise in federal assets. Thus, we can say that federal "equity" is much lower now than in 1945.
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