So Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul was the choice of voters this weekend at the Conservative Political Action conference to be the next president of the United States, with Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio the runner up. (Paul got 25 percent to Rubio’s 23 percent.)
If history is any guide, however, neither Paul nor Rubio will clinch a future Republican presidential nomination. Because, more often than not, the winner of CPAC’s straw poll goes on to lose the nomination for president. The only exceptions: Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984; George W. Bush in 2000 and Mitt Romney in 2012.
In nearly every other year, a long-shot conservative gets the CPAC nod, and goes on to lose the nomination to somebody else.
Of course, the straw poll is more a measure of conservative bona fides than it is a predictor of future electoral success. These are conservatives we’re talking about, and they value principle over pragmatism, even when the latter could win them votes.
The history, courtesy of a partial archive maintained by Wikipedia:
1976: CPAC picks Reagan; incumbent Gerald Ford wins the nomination but loses the general election to Jimmy Carter.
1980, 1984: Reagan wins the CPAC straw poll, the Republican nomination and the presidency.
1986, 1987: New York U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp wins the CPAC nomination, but incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush wins the nomination and the presidency in 1988.
1992: Bill Clinton defeats Bush for re-election.
1993: Kemp wins the CPAC straw poll.
1995: Texas U.S. Sen. Phil Graham wins CPAC straw poll. He fails subsequently to capture any nomination for national office.
1996: Clinton and Vice President Al Gore defeat the Republican ticket of Bob Dole and Kemp.
1998: Steve Forbes wins the CPAC straw poll. He is not seriously considered for any future nomination.
1999: Conservative activist Gary Bauer wins the CPAC straw poll. He is not seriously considered for any future nomination.
2000: George W. Bush wins the CPAC straw poll, the nomination and the presidency.
2004: Bush wins re-election, defeating U.S. Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards.
2005: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani wins the CPAC nod. He is not seriously considered for any future nomination.
2006: Virginia Sen. George Allen wins CPAC. Allen went on to lose his re-election that year after hurling a racially insensitive name at a campaign-trail “tracker” wielding a video camera. (He was defeated in a bid to return to the Senate last year.)
2007-2009: Mitt Romney wins the CPAC straw poll, but in 2008, Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain wins the Republican nomination but loses the presidency to Barack Obama.
2010-2011: Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul — father of Rand Paul — wins the CPAC straw poll.
2012: Romney again wins the straw poll, and the Republican nomination, but loses to Obama in the general election.
If history is any guide, however, neither Paul nor Rubio will clinch a future Republican presidential nomination. Because, more often than not, the winner of CPAC’s straw poll goes on to lose the nomination for president. The only exceptions: Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984; George W. Bush in 2000 and Mitt Romney in 2012.
In nearly every other year, a long-shot conservative gets the CPAC nod, and goes on to lose the nomination to somebody else.
Of course, the straw poll is more a measure of conservative bona fides than it is a predictor of future electoral success. These are conservatives we’re talking about, and they value principle over pragmatism, even when the latter could win them votes.
The history, courtesy of a partial archive maintained by Wikipedia:
1976: CPAC picks Reagan; incumbent Gerald Ford wins the nomination but loses the general election to Jimmy Carter.
1980, 1984: Reagan wins the CPAC straw poll, the Republican nomination and the presidency.
1986, 1987: New York U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp wins the CPAC nomination, but incumbent Vice President George H.W. Bush wins the nomination and the presidency in 1988.
1992: Bill Clinton defeats Bush for re-election.
1993: Kemp wins the CPAC straw poll.
1995: Texas U.S. Sen. Phil Graham wins CPAC straw poll. He fails subsequently to capture any nomination for national office.
1996: Clinton and Vice President Al Gore defeat the Republican ticket of Bob Dole and Kemp.
1998: Steve Forbes wins the CPAC straw poll. He is not seriously considered for any future nomination.
1999: Conservative activist Gary Bauer wins the CPAC straw poll. He is not seriously considered for any future nomination.
2000: George W. Bush wins the CPAC straw poll, the nomination and the presidency.
2004: Bush wins re-election, defeating U.S. Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards.
2005: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani wins the CPAC nod. He is not seriously considered for any future nomination.
2006: Virginia Sen. George Allen wins CPAC. Allen went on to lose his re-election that year after hurling a racially insensitive name at a campaign-trail “tracker” wielding a video camera. (He was defeated in a bid to return to the Senate last year.)
2007-2009: Mitt Romney wins the CPAC straw poll, but in 2008, Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain wins the Republican nomination but loses the presidency to Barack Obama.
2010-2011: Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul — father of Rand Paul — wins the CPAC straw poll.
2012: Romney again wins the straw poll, and the Republican nomination, but loses to Obama in the general election.
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