The Weekly Standard

COLD OPEN


I warned you last week: Everything about the 2012 election is ahistorical. And it turns out that last week's debate actually mattered. Mitt Romney had the best debate performance of his career, President Obama was soft and listless, and Romney has come thundering back in the polls, jumping by more than three points nationally.
 

And we've got three more of these reality shows coming.

Next up is Joe Biden versus Paul Ryan in what has all the makings of a classic mismatch. Ryan is smart and unflappable, articulate and deeply knowledgeable. And Biden … well, there's a reason people refer to him as "Crazy Uncle Joe."

The upside for this debate is all on Ryan's side, too. If Ryan comes out and gives a bravura performance, it may not mean any additional votes—but it could consolidate the momentum created by Romney's first debate. A one-two combination like that would cement the view that we have one ticket comprised of dynamic, forward-thinking talents and another ticket made up of two guys who are past their sell-by date.

But here’s the thing: I wouldn't pop the champagne just yet. In fact, I'd go even further and suggest that, despite his grandiose pomposity, Joe Biden poses some real problems for Ryan.

Ryan's challenge is twofold. First, there's the basic fact that he hasn't had a ton of experience doing mano-a-mano debates. Ryan is great at conversational discussion—witness his epic takedown of President Obama at the Blair House health care summit. But a VP debate is a different animal. Standing on a stage, with professional lighting, a live studio audience, flashing green lights, and a moderator will be a new experience for him.

The second challenge for Ryan is that Vice President Biden is an asymmetric opponent. Biden will never match Ryan in wonkiness. But he's folksy and tough. In 2008 he was cagey enough to not engage Sarah Palin in any way that would elevate her status or destabilize the race. His convention speech in Charlotte was devastatingly effective. You can, literally, make fun of how many times he says "literally." But he's a smooth talking, downhome, professional politician who is unencumbered by the burden of having to know every fact or apologize for any errors.

And what's more, I suspect he'll engage Ryan not by criticizing the Ryan roadmap but by attacking Romney and essentially saying, Look, I respect Paul Ryan, who has the courage of his convictions…so how can he support a flip-flopper like Mitt Romney?

As a friend of mine put it a few weeks ago, the strengths of Ryan and Biden are so disparate that it will be a little bit like watching one of those Nature Channel shows where it’s lion-vs.-gorilla-vs.-alligator.

In other words, temper your expectations. This isn't the slam-dunk it looks like on paper.


LOOKING BACK


"When Democrats dream of the perfect presidential campaign, they dream of the war room--the magic rapid-response operation that with its targeted rage and its lethal objections turns every Republican attack back on the attackers. If only Democrats were quicker, they say; if only they were nastier; if only they were … well, meaner than they are in real life."

—Noemie Emery, "The Myth of the War Room," from our October 11, 2004, issue.

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