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We spent the first half of this week watching the intra-campaign
sniping in Boston as various (anonymous) Romney staffers leaked to
Politico to
complain about strategy chief Stuart Stevens. In one sense, there wasn't
much to see here: Very few campaigns are models of bureaucratic efficiency—a
national campaign is too big and freewheeling to be run with UPS-style
precision. What really separates our perceptions of the campaign's skill are the
numbers. If Romney was ahead by 6 points right now, you could write the same
story about the idiosyncratic genius of the campaign. And the candidate, I would
argue, drives the numbers. The campaign is the candidate; the candidate is the
campaign. Everything else is secondary.
So why is Obama still ahead? He’s
not ahead by much—his convention bounce seems to have mostly dissipated and, as
Jay
Cost notes, when you look at the likely-voter models the two are very close
indeed. But here's the thing: When we talked about this election a year ago,
Obama's theory of victory was that some late green shoots of recovery would be
enough to convince voters that he had turned the economy around.
Instead,
the opposite has happened.
When you look at the news from the last eight
weeks or so, it isn't just that the economy hasn't turned around—things are
getting worse. Unemployment, inflation pressures, gas prices, manufacturing,
retail sales—every economic indicator is heading in the wrong direction. An
American ambassador was killed, the Middle East is in flames and Obama’s
response has been nothing short of embarrassing.
Voters don't need to
wait until January 2013 to see what a second Obama term would look like. They're
seeing it right now.
What should worry Republicans is that Obama isn't
clinging to a narrow lead with America making a slow, arduous turnaround. He's
leading even as the country goes from bad to worse.
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| LOOKING BACK |
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"John Sununu, then President Bush's White House chief of staff,
commented famously back in the spring of 1991 that Congress needn't pass
anything at all for the next 18 months. Everything was set for Bush's
reelection. He'd won Desert Storm and enacted several significant pieces of
legislation (the Americans with Disabilities Act, the clean-air revisions),
enough to guarantee a second term. What made Sununu's remark so famous, of
course, was how wrong he was. Yet now, Republican leaders in Congress may make
the same mistake, thinking the budget deal is enough to ensure that the GOP
holds the House and Senate in 1998. Take up big-time conservative issues and
risk a public fight with President Clinton? Forget it. Asked if Republicans need
a bolder agenda, House majority leader Dick Armey replied: 'Balancing the budget
and getting the first tax cut in 16 years—I don't consider these particularly
timid things.'"
—Fred Barnes, "Sununuism Strikes Again," from our
September 22, 1997, issue.
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| THE READING LIST |
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The
Hoover Institute tries to explain exactly how much trouble the U.S. economy is
in. (Warning: Not for the faint of heart.)
* * *
Robert
Kolker on why smart kids cheat.
* * *
Grayson
Schaffer on why Mt. Everest still kills. |
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| INSTANT CLASSIC |
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"[W]hat is unfolding in the Middle East has the makings of the
most perfect storm in American foreign policy since 1979. You may recall what
happened then. Another Islamist revolution. Another attack on a U.S. Embassy.
Another Democrat in the White House.
"This is what Jimmy Carter said in a
speech on Feb. 7, 1980, as the Iranian hostage crisis entered its third month:
'I have been struck … by the human and moral values which Americans as a people
share with Islam. We share, first and foremost, a deep faith in the one Supreme
Being. We are all commanded by him to faith, compassion, and justice. We have a
common respect and reverence for law …On the basis of both values and interests,
the natural relationship between Islam and the United States is one of
friendship …We have the deepest respect and reverence for Islam.'
"Remind
you of anything? Try this: 'I've come here … to seek a new beginning between the
United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interest and
mutual respect, and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not
exclusive and need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and share
common principles—principles of justice and progress, tolerance, and the dignity
of all human beings … Let there be no doubt: Islam is a part of
America.'
"That was from a speech given by President Obama in Cairo on
June 4, 2009. Funny how small a difference 30 years make."
— Niall
Ferguson, Newsweek,
September 17, 2012. |
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