Look to the future:what does 2018 have in store?

Look to the future: what does 2018 have in store?

International affairs

Iran nuclear deal, 15 January

We should know by mid-January how serious Donald Trump is about seeking a confrontation with Iran over its nuclear programme. The US president refused in October to continue to certify the 2015 multilateral agreement under which Tehran accepted strict curbs on its activities in return for sanctions relief.

Trump said that either Congress or US allies should fix the “serious flaws” in the deal, or he would “terminate it. The Senate has since opted out of dealing with the matter, and Washington’s allies have insisted that the 2015 agreement cannot be renegotiated.

If Trump refuses to sign a six-monthly presidential waiver due on 15 January, nuclear-related sanctions against Iran will no longer be suspended and the US will be in violation of agreement. The other signatories, including the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China, would then have to decide whether to try to carry on without the US or allow the agreement to collapse. Either way, the Trump administration would have taken a very significant step toward open confrontation.

Winter Olympics, 9 February

The Winter Olympics in South Korea will be both a festival of sport and a test of the increasingly fragile peace in the region.

If the war of words between Trump and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, is defused, the Olympics could offer the opportunity for a thaw. Seoul has suggested a lull in joint manoeuvres with the US during the Games, potentially opening the way for dialogue.

 Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has been in a war of words with Donald Trump.

If the two leaders are still playing nuclear chicken, there is a risk Kim might seek to spoil South Korea’s long-planned Games with nuclear or missile test, or another form of provocation. It could make for a very tense fortnight.

Ticket sales are low, but Britain’s 60-strong squad are feeling “bullish” about 10 to 12 realistic medal prospects, having won four in Sochi 2014. UK competitors include the snowboarders Katie Ormerod and Billy Morgan, the speed skating world champion Elise Christie, and Katie Summerhayes and James Woods in the ski slopestyle. Watch out too for three women who could be the stars of the Games. Nigeria’s bobsleigh team of Seun Adigun, Ngozi Onwumere and Akuoma Omeoga are close to securing a historic qualification. “It’s surreal,” says Adigun. “Nigeria have never had anyone in the Winter Olympics. The country’s excited to see that happen.”

Middle East peace process, February

President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to produce a plan for Middle East peace. It is a goal that has eluded many would-be statesmen, so it is a daunting task for the 36-year-old real estate heir.

He does have something going for him. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu feels beholden to Trump and could be willing to grant concessions that he would never have dreamed of offering to the previous US administration. The powerful if erratic Saudi crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, is also happy to shatter precedents and tradition, and seemingly keen to make common cause with the US and Israel against Iran.

One possible outcome is a plan that falls far short of dreams of statehood and independence of most Palestinians, who will be under pressure to accept whatever is offered, while Israel and its partners prepare for a conflict with Tehran and its allies.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is likely to strengthen its grip on Syria, rebuilding Bashar al-Assad’s army and fielding proxy forces across the country as Russia withdraws.

Russian elections, 18 March

 Vladimir Putin celebrates his victory in Russia’s 2018 presidential election.

Russia will hold a presidential election on a date chosen to mark the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea. The winner has not been in doubt since Vladimir Putin confirmed he would be standing for another six year term. By 2024, he will have been running Russia for 24 years.

There are no serious challengers to Putin extending his reign, but the election campaign will still provide a barometer of the level of discontent in the absence of any significant improvements in Russian living standards and the dwindling appeal of foreign wars.

South Sudan, 9 July

The mandate of the South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, and the country’s parliament expire under the transitional constitution, leaving a potentially dangerous vacuum.

There is no sign that South Sudan is ready for a vote, the opposition is in exile and little has been done to implement the 2015 peace agreement that froze its civil war. Conflict threatens to reignite in a country where 7.6 million people are dependent on aid as a result of decades of conflict and misrule.

Brazilian elections, 28 October
Brazil will seek to find its way out of a mire of political scandals and corruption when the second round of its presidential election take place. It will be the first popular vote since Michel Temer took over as president in the wake of the impeachment and removal of Dilma Rousseff.

Temer has just survived serious corruption allegations himself, but his popularity rating is in low single figures. The current favourite to win is the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but only if he takes part. That is in doubt because he faces a suspended sentence for money laundering and receiving bribes. If the sentence is upheld, he would be out of the race, which would be left wide open.

US mid-term elections, 6 November

The extraordinary Senate vote in Alabama gives a foretaste of the nationwide battle to come in the US mid-term elections, in which all 435 members of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate face the electorate.

Mid-terms tend to be seen as a popular verdict on the presidency, Trump has record low approval ratings and Democrats feel that if they can win in Alabama they could win anywhere.

It is possible the Democrats could conquer the House if the anti-Trump wave is strong enough, but they face arithmetic problems in the Senate. Of the 33 seats up for election, Democrats and their allies are defending 25. To win the Senate they would have to fend off challenges there and capture two Republican seats in Arizona, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah or Wyoming. Julian Borger

UK
Brexit talks, January

If you thought the Brexit talks dragged on this year, just wait for the sequel in 2018. Phase two of the divorce negotiations starts in earnest in January once the European commission receives its mandate from other member states for discussing Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

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