Today, I’m writing from London, a city with a severe hangover. A huge, dark cloud hangs over the future of Britain, a year after its decision to leave the European Union and a couple of days after officials have begun Brexit negotiations. Some Brits draw comfort by looking back to a past when Great Britain really was great. Back then, at its largest, the empire governed 20 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of its land area. That was 95 years ago.
Now, the UK depends on imports, unable to produce the food, medicines and cars it needs. Since the day that 52 percent of British voters chose to leave the EU, the pound has lost 16 percent of its value compared to the euro, and economic growth has slowed to 0.2 percent compared to the previous year. Bloomberg just published a set of 10 economic warning signals to show “Britain is near a tipping point.”
Car sales have decreased 10 percent since mid-2016 while credit card debt is up 10 percent. The major banks are beefing up their presence in continental Europe. German and French defense contracts are passing by British Aerospace. Wages are increasing slower than inflation – that means a loss in real wages for millions of Brits. It’s exactly the opposite of what the Leavers promised: The poor are getting poorer while the rich get off scot-free.
Pressure is growing on the government to hold a second referendum. It’s time for the elites “to take back control,” argues Gideon Rachman, a Financial Times columnist. Ex-prime minister Tony Blairhas also called on the government to put all the options on the table, including an exit from Brexit. “We feel like a country which has lost its footing and is stumbling,” he recently wrote.
A former minister from Gordon Brown’s government, who negotiated key contracts with the EU, doesn’t think Britain can escape the Brexit trap alone. A democratically-minded populace is likely to revolt against every revision. The weak leadership of Prime Minister Theresa May won’t suffice to turn the change of mood into realpolitik.
Right now, Britain is suffering from a major shortage of confidence. The country is the new sick man of Europe and is the author of its own destruction. In the next few years, our friends will likely be called upon to prove their strength and their powers of perseverance. There is a way back to Europe but there is no shortcut. As Winston Churchill put it: “If you’re going through hell, keep going.”
Wishing you a relaxed start to the new day. Yours sincerely,
Gabor Steingart
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