by John Proteus
THE UNSTUMPABLE UNSTOPPABLE TRUMP TRAIN.. IS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STATION.. ALL ABOARD !!!
The rest of you... take a deep breath and step aside! All your bitching and whining and throwing a fit is not going change a damn thing!New Hampshire Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
Donald Trump: 30.7%
Marco Rubio: 16.4%
Ted Cruz: 12%
John Kasich: 12%
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus forecast, which considers multiple factors beyond the polls, gives Trump a 64 percent chance to win New Hampshire, with Rubio at 19 percent and everyone else in single digits. Their polls-only forecast bumps Trump to 76 percent, with Rubio at 10.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
Donald Trump: 64%
Marco Rubio: 19%
In the PredictWise betting averages, Trump rises to 69 percent, with Rubio rising to 22 as well.
The most recent polls for South Carolina, from CBS News/YouGov and NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal show a Trump advantage of 19 and 16 points, respectively. CBS News/YouGov shows Trump taking 36 percent to Cruz’s 20 percent, with Rubio at 14; NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal gives Trump a full 40 percent, with Cruz at 21 and Rubio 13. Neither of these, though, were taken after the Iowa caucus, so there’s crucial context missing from these numbers.
The RealClearPolitics averages for South Carolina show a 16.3-point lead for Trump at 36, with 19.7 for Cruz, 12.7 for Rubio, and 10 for Jeb Bush.
South Carolina Polling Averages (by RealClearPolitics)
Donald Trump: 36%
Ted Cruz: 19.7%
Marco Rubio: 12.7%
Jeb Bush: 10%
FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus projection for South Carolina puts Trump at a 55 percent favorite to win the nomination, with Rubio at 21 and Cruz at 17. Their polls-only projection puts Trump at 70 percent, with 17 for Cruz.
FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
Donald Trump: 55%
Marco Rubio: 21%
Ted Cruz: 17%
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