“Verification” in the Iran deal is even more of a scam than you thought
What happens if the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors want access to a site and the Iranians refuse?
Much has been made of the absurd 24 days in which Iran can delay the inspection to cover up a violation. In addition, Sections Q.75-76 of Annex 1 of the Joint Comprehensive Plan mandate a program of back and forth maneuvering between Iran and the IAEA before the “original request for access” in Section Q.78 begins the 24 day period. A thorough consideration of this program indicates that Iran can turn this into quite a complicated ballet.
From the moment the IAEA first asks the Iranian government why particular sites are closed to inspection, Iran can stretch out the period between that initial “request for clarifications” and the “original request for access” to a length that is left undetermined by the Plan. And Iran will probably get a warning from its own or another intelligence service before the request for clarifications is brought up for discussion at the IAEA. So the time span between the moment that Iran understands there will be a challenge to the closed status of a site and the time when there is a chance for the IAEA’s access is more like a month and a half rather than the already suspiciously stretched-out 24 days.
But what really makes the verification process a deception is the make-up of the Joint Commission that is tasked to adjudicate a dispute about access.
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